We are now more than halfway through the month of February and coming down the home stretch of the college basketball season. March Madness is right around the corner and much of the fun in February is making March Madness predictions.
Today, I want to talk about some teams that you should NOT trust heading into the tournament next month. Whether it’s due to coaching, inexperience, or just horrible inconsistency. Here are some teams to fade in your office bracket pool.
Marquette Golden Eagles
There is no denying that Marquette has had some golden moments on the season by sweeping Villanova, taking down Illinois early on, and handing Providence one of their three losses on the season. However, they are also horrifically inconsistent as displayed by their recent defeat at the hands of a down Butler program.
The program has been one to fade for years which was also the case when Shaka Smart coached Texas. The combination of program and coach seems like the most logical fade in recent memory. Marquette may be ranked in the top 40 in Kenpom but they have dropped surprising games to St. Bonaventure and Butler and also lost four consecutive games (three at home) at one point this season.
The Golden Eagles aren’t extraordinary in any particular facet of the game but they do hold opponents to a respectable effective field goal percentage. The concern with Marquette is that they don’t shoot the three-ball very well and they don’t defend the three-ball very well. That could spell disaster if they face the right mid-major team in the tournament and could be game over very quickly.
Iowa Hawkeyes
One of the aspects of teams that make them easy to fade is when they’re one-dimensional. When it comes to the Iowa Hawkeyes it’s the Keegan Murray show and not much else. Murray is one of the best pure scorers in the country but as a team, Iowa is not all that impressive. They don’t turn the ball over which is a tribute to Jordan Bohannon and his experience but as a team, they struggle if Murray is not on the mark.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Hawkeyes rank 173rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 199th in the nation in two-point percentage defense. Much like Marquette, the Hawkeyes don’t shoot the ball well from deep (110th in the nation) or defend the arc well (151st in the nation). So in conclusion, if Iowa receives a draw against a slow-tempo team that shoots the ball halfway decent they could be in big trouble very quickly.
USC Trojans
The Trojans are easily the biggest pretenders in college basketball to put it bluntly. Now that Isaiah Mobley is dinged up they become even less trustworthy. Mobley has returned following a two-game absence but is likely not 100%.
While Andy Enfield’s group boasts a sparkling 22-4 record on the season, they have only played four-quadrant one games on the year. The Trojans are 3-1 in those games but also own a quadrant three loss and were swept by a Stanford team that is ranked 95th in the nation in the Pomeroy metric. Their strength of schedule is just 115th in the nation after playing a 195th ranked non-conference strength of schedule.
Aside from their lack of tests on the court, USC ranks 333rd in the turnover percentage defense and 102nd in the nation in three-point defense. If they are to have any kind of success in the tournament, Mobley needs to be completely healthy and they need to buckle down defensively.
In Closing
Regardless of the matchups in the tournament, these teams are the most fadeable teams coming out of the power six conferences. All three teams mentioned above boast coaches that have little tournament success which is personified by Fran McCaffery who hasn’t made it out of the first weekend in his 26-year coaching career. Fade accordingly.